ADVERTISEMENT
CS2Lab›Case Simulator›Falchion Case
Falchion Case
MARKETPLACE ONLYNo longer in drop pool (removed Dec 2025)

Falchion Case

Case

CASE PRICE
$2.62
Steam Market floor
KEY PRICE
$2.49
Standard key
COST PER OPEN
$5.11
Case + key
EXPECTED VALUE
$3.27
Avg return per open
PROFIT / LOSS
$-1.84
Per open (EV − cost)
ROI
-36.1%
Return on investment
📉
NEGATIVE EXPECTED VALUE

Opening this case costs $5.11 but returns an average of $3.27 per open — a loss of $1.84 (36.1% negative ROI). The vast majority of CS2 cases have negative EV. Opening is entertainment, not investment.

DROP RATES & CONTENTS

79.92% mil spec15.98% restricted0.640% covert0.260% rare special3.20% classified
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge
Aquamarine Revenge
0.320% chance per open
$44.11
ST™ $86.86
AWP | Hyper Beast
Hyper Beast
0.320% chance per open
$45.94
ST™ $84.82
★ Falchion Knife
★ Falchion Knife
0.020% chance per open
$167.46
ST™ $231.40
★ Falchion Knife | Fade
Fade
0.020% chance per open
$320.00
ST™ $373.03
★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web
Crimson Web
0.020% chance per open
$161.00
ST™ $228.93
★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter
Slaughter
0.020% chance per open
$307.00
ST™ $345.00
★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened
Case Hardened
0.020% chance per open
$219.53
ST™ $248.18
★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked
Urban Masked
0.020% chance per open
$98.10
ST™ $113.09
★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel
Blue Steel
0.020% chance per open
$167.14
ST™ $216.57
★ Falchion Knife | Night
Night
0.020% chance per open
$111.83
ST™ $151.64
★ Falchion Knife | Stained
Stained
0.020% chance per open
$119.95
ST™ $138.00
★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT
Forest DDPAT
0.020% chance per open
$89.06
ST™ $119.74
★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest
Boreal Forest
0.020% chance per open
$90.00
ST™ $118.56
★ Falchion Knife | Scorched
Scorched
0.020% chance per open
$93.96
ST™ $116.86
★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh
Safari Mesh
0.020% chance per open
$87.90
ST™ $101.00

ABOUT THESE NUMBERS

Drop rates:Official — published by Valve via Perfect World (China) in September 2017 and verified across millions of community case openings.
StatTrak probability:10% — community-verified across tens of millions of openings. Not officially published by Valve.
Prices:Steam Market floor ask. Updated every ~4 hours. EV is a mathematical average — actual results vary greatly.
EV disclaimer:Nearly all cases have negative EV. Opening cases is entertainment, not a trading strategy. Never open cases expecting profit.
OPEN THIS CASE (SIMULATOR) →BUILD A LOADOUT INSTEAD