CS2Lab›Case Simulator›Falchion Case
Falchion Case
MARKETPLACE ONLYNo longer in drop pool (removed Dec 2025)

Falchion Case

Case

CASE PRICE
$3.08
Steam Market floor
KEY PRICE
$2.49
Standard key
COST PER OPEN
$5.57
Case + key
EXPECTED VALUE
$3.78
Avg return per open
PROFIT / LOSS
$-1.79
Per open (EV − cost)
ROI
-32.2%
Return on investment
📉
NEGATIVE EXPECTED VALUE

Opening this case costs $5.57 but returns an average of $3.78 per open — a loss of $1.79 (32.2% negative ROI). The vast majority of CS2 cases have negative EV. Opening is entertainment, not investment.

DROP RATES & CONTENTS

79.92% mil spec15.98% restricted3.20% classified0.640% covert0.260% rare special
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge
Aquamarine Revenge
0.320% chance per open
$51.93
ST™ $92.00
AWP | Hyper Beast
Hyper Beast
0.320% chance per open
$47.56
ST™ $87.56
★ Falchion Knife
★ Falchion Knife
0.020% chance per open
$160.00
ST™ $213.47
★ Falchion Knife | Fade
Fade
0.020% chance per open
$340.20
ST™ $461.15
★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web
Crimson Web
0.020% chance per open
$174.83
ST™ $181.27
★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter
Slaughter
0.020% chance per open
$280.00
ST™ $345.89
★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened
Case Hardened
0.020% chance per open
$197.14
ST™ $251.36
★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked
Urban Masked
0.020% chance per open
$105.62
ST™ $130.00
★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel
Blue Steel
0.020% chance per open
$187.51
ST™ $230.69
★ Falchion Knife | Night
Night
0.020% chance per open
$110.35
ST™ $151.11
★ Falchion Knife | Stained
Stained
0.020% chance per open
$123.52
ST™ $143.61
★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT
Forest DDPAT
0.020% chance per open
$99.08
ST™ $115.98
★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest
Boreal Forest
0.020% chance per open
$100.25
ST™ $112.43
★ Falchion Knife | Scorched
Scorched
0.020% chance per open
$103.01
ST™ $121.02
★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh
Safari Mesh
0.020% chance per open
$94.91
ST™ $115.30

ABOUT THESE NUMBERS

Drop rates:Official — published by Valve via Perfect World (China) in September 2017 and verified across millions of community case openings.
StatTrak probability:10% — community-verified across tens of millions of openings. Not officially published by Valve.
Prices:Steam Market floor ask. Updated every ~4 hours. EV is a mathematical average — actual results vary greatly.
EV disclaimer:Nearly all cases have negative EV. Opening cases is entertainment, not a trading strategy. Never open cases expecting profit.
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