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CS2Lab›Case Simulator›Falchion Case
Falchion Case
MARKETPLACE ONLYNo longer in drop pool (removed Dec 2025)

Falchion Case

Case

CASE PRICE
$2.59
Steam Market floor
KEY PRICE
$2.49
Standard key
COST PER OPEN
$5.08
Case + key
EXPECTED VALUE
$3.28
Avg return per open
PROFIT / LOSS
$-1.80
Per open (EV − cost)
ROI
-35.4%
Return on investment
📉
NEGATIVE EXPECTED VALUE

Opening this case costs $5.08 but returns an average of $3.28 per open — a loss of $1.80 (35.4% negative ROI). The vast majority of CS2 cases have negative EV. Opening is entertainment, not investment.

DROP RATES & CONTENTS

15.98% restricted79.92% mil spec3.20% classified0.260% rare special0.640% covert
★ Falchion Knife
★ Falchion Knife
0.020% chance per open
$172.38
ST™ $231.76
★ Falchion Knife | Fade
Fade
0.020% chance per open
$320.00
ST™ $405.00
★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web
Crimson Web
0.020% chance per open
$162.23
ST™ $230.00
★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter
Slaughter
0.020% chance per open
$307.00
ST™ $373.03
★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened
Case Hardened
0.020% chance per open
$216.93
ST™ $313.00
★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked
Urban Masked
0.020% chance per open
$102.50
ST™ $113.81
★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel
Blue Steel
0.020% chance per open
$167.14
ST™ $219.03
★ Falchion Knife | Night
Night
0.020% chance per open
$102.00
ST™ $149.98
★ Falchion Knife | Stained
Stained
0.020% chance per open
$112.53
ST™ $135.93
★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT
Forest DDPAT
0.020% chance per open
$89.36
ST™ $117.41
★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest
Boreal Forest
0.020% chance per open
$91.94
ST™ $114.60
★ Falchion Knife | Scorched
Scorched
0.020% chance per open
$93.54
ST™ $116.86
★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh
Safari Mesh
0.020% chance per open
$86.90
ST™ $93.54
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge
Aquamarine Revenge
0.320% chance per open
$46.36
ST™ $87.21
AWP | Hyper Beast
Hyper Beast
0.320% chance per open
$45.03
ST™ $84.82

ABOUT THESE NUMBERS

Drop rates:Official — published by Valve via Perfect World (China) in September 2017 and verified across millions of community case openings.
StatTrak probability:10% — community-verified across tens of millions of openings. Not officially published by Valve.
Prices:Steam Market floor ask. Updated every ~4 hours. EV is a mathematical average — actual results vary greatly.
EV disclaimer:Nearly all cases have negative EV. Opening cases is entertainment, not a trading strategy. Never open cases expecting profit.
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