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Operation Breakout Weapon Case
MARKETPLACE ONLYNo longer in drop pool (removed Dec 2025)

Operation Breakout Weapon Case

Case

CASE PRICE
$13.23
Steam Market floor
KEY PRICE
$2.49
Standard key
COST PER OPEN
$15.72
Case + key
EXPECTED VALUE
$6.95
Avg return per open
PROFIT / LOSS
$-8.77
Per open (EV − cost)
ROI
-55.8%
Return on investment
📉
NEGATIVE EXPECTED VALUE

Opening this case costs $15.72 but returns an average of $6.95 per open — a loss of $8.77 (55.8% negative ROI). The vast majority of CS2 cases have negative EV. Opening is entertainment, not investment.

DROP RATES & CONTENTS

79.92% mil spec15.98% restricted3.20% classified0.640% covert0.260% rare special
P90 | Asiimov
Asiimov
0.320% chance per open
$214.82
ST™ $228.28
M4A1-S | Cyrex
Cyrex
0.320% chance per open
$242.10
ST™ $236.96
★ Butterfly Knife
★ Butterfly Knife
0.020% chance per open
$1,828
ST™ $1,792
★ Butterfly Knife | Fade
Fade
0.020% chance per open
$3,022
ST™ $3,685
★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web
Crimson Web
0.020% chance per open
$900.00
ST™ $1,032
★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter
Slaughter
0.020% chance per open
$1,631
ST™ $1,772
★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened
Case Hardened
0.020% chance per open
$1,035
ST™ $1,250
★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked
Urban Masked
0.020% chance per open
$690.00
ST™ $725.82
★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel
Blue Steel
0.020% chance per open
$1,181
ST™ $1,074
★ Butterfly Knife | Night
Night
0.020% chance per open
$766.32
ST™ $809.38
★ Butterfly Knife | Stained
Stained
0.020% chance per open
$834.09
ST™ $806.65
★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT
Forest DDPAT
0.020% chance per open
$680.00
ST™ $674.06
★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest
Boreal Forest
0.020% chance per open
$604.82
ST™ $738.54
★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched
Scorched
0.020% chance per open
$699.33
ST™ $792.12
★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh
Safari Mesh
0.020% chance per open
$680.11
ST™ $680.05

ABOUT THESE NUMBERS

Drop rates:Official — published by Valve via Perfect World (China) in September 2017 and verified across millions of community case openings.
StatTrak probability:10% — community-verified across tens of millions of openings. Not officially published by Valve.
Prices:Steam Market floor ask. Updated every ~4 hours. EV is a mathematical average — actual results vary greatly.
EV disclaimer:Nearly all cases have negative EV. Opening cases is entertainment, not a trading strategy. Never open cases expecting profit.
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