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CS2Lab›Case Simulator›Operation Wildfire Case
Operation Wildfire Case
MARKETPLACE ONLYNo longer in drop pool (removed Dec 2025)

Operation Wildfire Case

Case

CASE PRICE
$5.09
Steam Market floor
KEY PRICE
$2.49
Standard key
COST PER OPEN
$7.58
Case + key
EXPECTED VALUE
$5.49
Avg return per open
PROFIT / LOSS
$-2.09
Per open (EV − cost)
ROI
-27.6%
Return on investment
📉
NEGATIVE EXPECTED VALUE

Opening this case costs $7.58 but returns an average of $5.49 per open — a loss of $2.09 (27.6% negative ROI). The vast majority of CS2 cases have negative EV. Opening is entertainment, not investment.

DROP RATES & CONTENTS

15.98% restricted79.92% mil spec3.20% classified0.260% rare special0.640% covert
★ Bowie Knife
★ Bowie Knife
0.020% chance per open
$141.58
ST™ $177.74
★ Bowie Knife | Fade
Fade
0.020% chance per open
$323.99
ST™ $483.00
★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web
Crimson Web
0.020% chance per open
$157.22
ST™ $203.69
★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter
Slaughter
0.020% chance per open
$274.88
ST™ $328.71
★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened
Case Hardened
0.020% chance per open
$195.66
ST™ $289.69
★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked
Urban Masked
0.020% chance per open
$89.94
ST™ $90.01
★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel
Blue Steel
0.020% chance per open
$143.18
ST™ $235.00
★ Bowie Knife | Night
Night
0.020% chance per open
$92.00
ST™ $163.71
★ Bowie Knife | Stained
Stained
0.020% chance per open
$115.35
ST™ $160.05
★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT
Forest DDPAT
0.020% chance per open
$74.00
ST™ $105.30
★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest
Boreal Forest
0.020% chance per open
$80.09
ST™ $128.80
★ Bowie Knife | Scorched
Scorched
0.020% chance per open
$81.54
ST™ $98.64
★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh
Safari Mesh
0.020% chance per open
$74.32
ST™ $100.00
AK-47 | Fuel Injector
Fuel Injector
0.320% chance per open
$153.20
ST™ $308.86
M4A4 | The Battlestar
The Battlestar
0.320% chance per open
$39.35
ST™ $56.16

ABOUT THESE NUMBERS

Drop rates:Official — published by Valve via Perfect World (China) in September 2017 and verified across millions of community case openings.
StatTrak probability:10% — community-verified across tens of millions of openings. Not officially published by Valve.
Prices:Steam Market floor ask. Updated every ~4 hours. EV is a mathematical average — actual results vary greatly.
EV disclaimer:Nearly all cases have negative EV. Opening cases is entertainment, not a trading strategy. Never open cases expecting profit.
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