CS2Lab›Case Simulator›Operation Wildfire Case
Operation Wildfire Case
MARKETPLACE ONLYNo longer in drop pool (removed Dec 2025)

Operation Wildfire Case

Case

CASE PRICE
$6.29
Steam Market floor
KEY PRICE
$2.49
Standard key
COST PER OPEN
$8.78
Case + key
EXPECTED VALUE
$6.28
Avg return per open
PROFIT / LOSS
$-2.50
Per open (EV − cost)
ROI
-28.5%
Return on investment
📉
NEGATIVE EXPECTED VALUE

Opening this case costs $8.78 but returns an average of $6.28 per open — a loss of $2.50 (28.5% negative ROI). The vast majority of CS2 cases have negative EV. Opening is entertainment, not investment.

DROP RATES & CONTENTS

79.92% mil spec15.98% restricted3.20% classified0.640% covert0.260% rare special
AK-47 | Fuel Injector
Fuel Injector
0.320% chance per open
$157.41
ST™ $327.46
M4A4 | The Battlestar
The Battlestar
0.320% chance per open
$43.14
ST™ $64.99
★ Bowie Knife
★ Bowie Knife
0.020% chance per open
$148.74
ST™ $195.00
★ Bowie Knife | Fade
Fade
0.020% chance per open
$306.51
ST™ $434.70
★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web
Crimson Web
0.020% chance per open
$167.34
ST™ $240.00
★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter
Slaughter
0.020% chance per open
$280.00
ST™ $330.22
★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened
Case Hardened
0.020% chance per open
$205.85
ST™ $230.00
★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked
Urban Masked
0.020% chance per open
$91.59
ST™ $115.00
★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel
Blue Steel
0.020% chance per open
$143.75
ST™ $266.80
★ Bowie Knife | Night
Night
0.020% chance per open
$101.60
ST™ $171.94
★ Bowie Knife | Stained
Stained
0.020% chance per open
$109.25
ST™ $176.52
★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT
Forest DDPAT
0.020% chance per open
$83.00
ST™ $122.06
★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest
Boreal Forest
0.020% chance per open
$86.25
ST™ $107.52
★ Bowie Knife | Scorched
Scorched
0.020% chance per open
$87.05
ST™ $116.89
★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh
Safari Mesh
0.020% chance per open
$81.65
ST™ $93.39

ABOUT THESE NUMBERS

Drop rates:Official — published by Valve via Perfect World (China) in September 2017 and verified across millions of community case openings.
StatTrak probability:10% — community-verified across tens of millions of openings. Not officially published by Valve.
Prices:Steam Market floor ask. Updated every ~4 hours. EV is a mathematical average — actual results vary greatly.
EV disclaimer:Nearly all cases have negative EV. Opening cases is entertainment, not a trading strategy. Never open cases expecting profit.
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