MARKETPLACE ONLYNo longer in drop pool (removed Dec 2025)
Shadow Case
Case
CASE PRICE
$2.65
Steam Market floor
KEY PRICE
$2.49
Standard key
COST PER OPEN
$5.14
Case + key
EXPECTED VALUE
$3.66
Avg return per open
PROFIT / LOSS
$-1.48
Per open (EV − cost)
ROI
-28.8%
Return on investment
📉
NEGATIVE EXPECTED VALUE
Opening this case costs $5.14 but returns an average of $3.66 per open — a loss of $1.48 (28.8% negative ROI). The vast majority of CS2 cases have negative EV. Opening is entertainment, not investment.
DROP RATES & CONTENTS
15.98% restricted79.92% mil spec3.20% classified0.260% rare special0.640% covert
ABOUT THESE NUMBERS
Drop rates:Official — published by Valve via Perfect World (China) in September 2017 and verified across millions of community case openings.
StatTrak probability:10% — community-verified across tens of millions of openings. Not officially published by Valve.
Prices:Steam Market floor ask. Updated every ~4 hours. EV is a mathematical average — actual results vary greatly.
EV disclaimer:Nearly all cases have negative EV. Opening cases is entertainment, not a trading strategy. Never open cases expecting profit.